Winchester/Frederick Co., Housing Market – September 2017
The Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market slowed slightly in the third quarter of 2017, but the numbers are still good. The third quarter statistics followed the same pattern as September 2017.
Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market by the numbers
September saw 135 homes sold in the Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market. Of those 135 homes the average home sale was $279,955. Compared with the past five years, that is a 20% increase in sale price. The September 2013 average home sale price was $221,605.
The average days on the market has stayed consistent during that same five-year period with minimal changes. Three of the past four years experienced 64 days on the market for listings. The summer months typically see a slight decline in real estate sales with an upward movement beginning in early to mid-September. July tends to be a slower month for real estate sales in the Winchester/Frederick Co.
Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market – market health
One of the easiest ways to see if a market is healthy is by the volume of distressed properties for sale on the market (foreclosures and short sales). The distressed market in the local market has become a non-issue.
September 2017 only had 3% short sales and foreclosures. The third quarter of 2017 followed that down pattern with 4% overall distressed properties. Compared with the previous five years, September 2017 is 10% of the September 2013 distressed market. Those buyers looking for a diamond in the rough are having a much harder time finding distressed bargains.
Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market – slow down whys
It is customary for the local real estate market to slow down in the summer and pick up in the fall. That patter can be seen year over year, but this year is dealing with another issue.
The stock market has a saying that “stocks climb a wall of worry.” When there is turmoil in the world, the stock market tends to expand. It is actually the reverse of what you might think.
The real estate market is the opposite. The real estate market climbs the stairs of certainty. During every presidential election year, real estate takes a wait and see approach to expansion. If the election year is tumultuous, the real estate market may slow down to allow for certainty to evolve. It is likely to be replaced by a more average market once the polls close and the future has some direction based on candidate’s promises.
After inauguration, the market tends to set up a flow that will set the pattern for the year. The 2017 presidential year has been one of continuous uncertainty. Stocks continue to thrive, and real estate is still following a modified wait and see pattern. The third quarters of 2015 and 2016 were more prolific than 2017, but they were also climbing the stairs of certainty. The flow did not change radically, but it did see some adjustments as election day approached.
The current housing market has paused on landing of political wrangling in Washington, D.C. The National Association of Realtors recently revealed that pending home sales have dropped 2.6% nationwide. Uncertainty in Washington, D.C., affects housing on Main St, USA.
The Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market is mimicking the national market flow with the its improvements and cautions. The fourth quarter will tell the tale of 2018. If the next quarter follows the patter of the past five years, the 2018 real estate market will be strong. If Washington, D.C. continues to be a quagmire of dysfunction, investors, sellers and buyers will have to deal with a level of uncertainty while the market tries to expand.