Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update – January – July 2017

Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update – January – July 2017

The northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market update for January through July 2017 shows where real estate is moving and where it is booming. It’s moving in all sectors, including, Frederick County, Clarke County and Warren County, VA. Where it’s booming is just across the Virginia state line in Berkeley and Jefferson County, WV.

Frederick County saw 792 homes sold in the first seven months of 2017. That was Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update - January - July 2017followed by 426 in Warren County, and then 123 in Clarke County. Move that view a few miles north and numbers run off the chart. Berkeley County, WV saw 1204 sales during that same period and Jefferson County, WV left all the neighboring counties behind with 1707 homes sold.

The Frederick, Clarke and Warren markets had a total of 1341 homes sold compared to Jefferson County, WV at 1707. That is a 21% difference in that one market as compared to three. Where’s the market booming at the top of the Shenandoah Valley? Jefferson County. WV. That’s good news for our northern neighbors.

Where the numbers are similar in the Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market

Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update - January - July 2017The total sales numbers are all over the map in the northern area of the Shenandoah Valley real estate market, but there are numbers that are similar. Through the five counties, distressed property sales range from as low as 6% to as high as 9%. Frederick County, VA and Berkeley and Jefferson Counties in WV all show a 6% distressed property rate for the previous seven months. Warren County, VA was at 8% and Clarke County, VA was 9%. The 6% number is closer to pre-recession numbers, but overall, even 9% is a good number compared to five years ago.

The days on the market are also similar across the five counties. Clarke County, VA and Warren County, VA both show an average of 91 days on the market, while Frederick County, VA shows a low of 63. Berkeley and Jefferson County, WV had 77 and 76 respectively. There is a 30% difference from the high to low days on the market, but that number is influenced by many factors that may not signal problem issues.

The biggest difference in the Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market

The biggest difference in the Shenandoah Valley real estate market is in the average sales price. The lowest sales price is Warren County, VA. Warren County had an average sales price of $154,416 for a 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Close behind that number was Berkeley County, WV. Berkeley County home sales averaged $188,279 for the first seven months of 2017.

Clarke County, VA had the highest average home sale price at $380,365, followed by Frederick County, VA at $269,030 and Jefferson County, WV at $210,935. The Clarke County, VA real estate market is a unique market. It is a lot like an island in the midst of the five counties. What is a normal market in the other four counties rarely applies to Clarke County, VA.

In the five counties, the numbers are moving in the right direction. Jefferson and Berkeley Counties may be getting a boost from new industry moving into the area. Proctor and Gamble is establishing a new facility on 450 acres just south of Martinsburg, WV in Berkeley County. The facility will be one-million square feet under roof and will employee 700 workers.

Amazon is also establishing a new fulfillment center at the most northern tip of Virginia in Frederick County. The new facility will hire 1,000 full-time workers. The facility will also be one-million square feet under roof. The site is just minutes south of the West Virginia border. That may also be contributing to the increase in home sales in both Berkeley and Jefferson Counties.

The northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market is looking good as we head into the second half of 2017. Home sales are up, distressed property sales are down and home values are returning to pre-recession values. It is a good time to sell. When you’re ready to buy or sell in the northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market, give Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., a call. Cornerstone serves both Virginia and West Virginia and we are here to help you find that great home. We are your local real estate sales pros.

 

 

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market Update – July 2017

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market Update – July 2017

The Clarke County, VA real estate market is an anomaly in the northwestern region of the Shenandoah Valley. It is a market on an island. It’s not literally on an island, but figuratively it is very much isolated from many areas of the Virginia real estate market. You might say, it has its own course and it doesn’t follow its neighbors in their real estate markets.

The Clarke County, VA real estate market is a smaller market, but it still had 123 sales Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market Update - July 2017in July. That is the second highest sales volume during the month of July in the past five years. The 2016 July sales were 131, but that was considerably higher than the previous three years. Sales numbers for those three years were 87 in 2015, 100 in 2014 and 99 in 2013. The one obvious thing about the Clarke County, VA real estate sales is that they are all over the map.

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market – By the numbers

There are a critical numbers in every real estate market. Those numbers tend to tell the story of a market’s health, and Clarke County is no different. In that body of data, days on the market, ratio of distressed properties and volume of sales and sale values are important predictors of future growth or decline. Here again, Clarke County, VA doesn’t always follow the norms, but they do give a glimpse into the future.

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market Update - July 2017The ratio of distressed properties has dropped radically from 2013. There has been a 41% dropped in short sales and foreclosures over the past five years. That’s a very positive number that gives a little insight into the overall health of the market. The July 2017 distressed property sales were 9% of total sales, and that’s good when compared to most of the previous five years. It doesn’t look bad until you look at Clarke County’s next door neighbor, Frederick County. The Frederick County, VA real estate market saw 1.5% distressed property sales in July 2017. Here again, Clarke County is a different animal with different norms.

Over the past five July markets, distressed properties were 2017 – 9%, 2016 – 11%, 2015 – 6%, 2014 – 16% and 2013 – 22%. Only the 2015 had better numbers, but it also had a 30% lower sales volume. In realty, the trend from 2013 to 2017 was continuously moving down, and it is likely that 2015 would have been somewhere between 16% and 11% if the volume was higher.

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market – Days on the market

Days on the market can also be a predictor of a real estate market’s health. Long periods on the market can signal that there are too many homes on the market, homes are priced too high, home condition issues may exist or there are simply to few buyers for homes.

In reverse, short days on the market can be the result of low inventory, a high number of buyers, well priced homes in desirable locations and in great condition. That short list creates an environment of quick sales and higher volumes of sales.

The five-year average for days on the market in Clarke County is 120, but the July 2017 days on the market hit a low of 91. That is the best overall number for the past five years and it shows a relatively steady decline in days on the market.

Clarke County, VA Real Estate Market – Dollars and cents

The last area of improvement in the Clarke County, VA real estate market is the average price of sales for July. The average sales price was $380,365. That is not a noticeable shift from 2016 which was $377,528, but when you look back five years to 2013, the numbers look better. The 2013 average price for July was $327,939. That’s a 14% increase from 2013.

There has been a steady climb in average sales price since 2013 with 2015 being an exception, but the low sales volume of 2015 caused the average price to be $545,417. Lower volume sales and higher priced homes created that deviation from the current trend.

Overall, the Clarke County, VA real estate market appears to be healthy. It may need a while longer before it fully recovers from its recession hangover, but the data that gives the best view of the market is trending up. When you’re ready to sell or buy a Clarke County, VA home, give your Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., agent a call. We are your real estate sales pros in the Shenandoah Valley.

 

 

Don’t panic; it’s July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Report

Don’t panic; it’s July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Report

Don’t panic; it’s July. The Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market for July 2017 shows a considerable drop in sales from June 2017. Real estate sales dropped 24%. That might sound worrisome to some, but in reality, it’s a seasonal decline that happens year after year.

July of 2016 dropped 9% from June 2016. July of 2015 dropped 23% from June 2015, Don't panic; it's July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Reportand July 2014 dropped 37% from June 2014. What causes these mid-year anomalies? Vacations and summer. Home buyers are less likely to buy a home in July than most other months. Buyers are on vacation, kids are out of school, and college students are doing what college students do during the summer. You get the point. People are busy and distracted.

Add to those simple things a run up in inventory like the June to July 2014 market and you can see how the numbers shift away from robust sales to the appearance of dismal sales. The reality is, the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market takes a breather for a month, and it begins to pick up again in August as students go back to school and vacations come to an end.

Don’t panic; it’s July and the numbers are good.

The Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market is very healthy at the mid-summer point of 2017. The real value in the current market is seen in where it has been and where it is today. So, don’t panic; it’s July.

The average sales price of homes sold in the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market have made a steady climb since 2013. There has been a 19% increase in value over those five market years. An average 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home sold for $236,312 in 2013. Today, that same home sells for $289,999.

The days on the market has also declined over the same period. That number hasn’t seen the same level of improvement as the sales values, but it’s still heading in the right direction. A 2013 sale took an average of 56 days, and a 2017 sale averages 47 days. That’s not a huge difference, but it is a 16% improvement. Again, that’s a positive change.

Don't panic, its July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market ReportThe most stunning change over the past five markets is the distressed property sales. This number continues to improve month over month and year over year. The current short sales and foreclosures only account for 1.5% of total sales in July. In 2013, that number was 21% of total sales. That shift alone should give buyers a much greater level of confidence that the value of the property they’re buying is the actual value of the property.

Don’t panic; it’s July and inventory is good.

Sellers are still in a better position in the local market because of the lower inventory, but inventory is climbing. Currently, the inventory stands at 592 available homes with 249 pending sales. The local market is strongest at 500-600 available homes with 550 being the sweet spot. If the inventory increases much beyond 600, the advantage may swing toward buyers, and sales may slow down. Higher inventory equates to more opportunities and that can give buyers the freedom to look at more homes before making a decision.

No matter what data you look at, the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market is strong, healthy and on course for another great year. So, when I say don’t panic; it’s July, you can take that to the bank. When you’re ready to buy or sell a home in Winchester-Frederick County, VA, give your Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., agent a call. We are your local real estate sales pros.

 

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Mid-Year Real Estate Report – 2017

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Mid-Year Real Estate Report – 2017

The Winchester-Frederick County, VA mid-year real estate market continues to shine. Some numbers are up and some are down, but they’re all good. That is welcome news for buyers, sellers and homeowners in general. The total number of sales in the Winchester-Frederick County, VA mid-year real estate market was 840 compared to 806 in 2016. That is not a major change, but it is a number heading in the right direction. It is consistent with the national average of 6% appreciation.

The one number that is the most impressive is the average sale price. The 2017 mid-Winchester-Frederick County, VA Mid-Year Real Estate Report - 2017year sales price average was $265,500 while 2016 was $255,034. The same period in 2015 was $242,578. That’s a nice consistent progression over the past three years, but the big change is when you look back five years. In 2012, the average sales price for the first six months of 2012 was $209,049. That is a 21% increase over five years. That’s impressive.

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Mid-Year Real Estate: Down Numbers

Another number that is down in the Winchester-Frederick County, VA mid-year report is the days on the market. The days on the market has remained fairly consistent over the past 5 years. The days on the market in 2012 was 87, 85 in 2015, 81 in 2016, but 2017 was down to 63 days. That is a 22% drop between 2016 and 2017. The good news for sellers is that their homes sit on the market fewer days and the sale price is higher.

Another stunning number that is also down is the percentage of distressed properties (short sales and foreclosures). The Winchester-Frederick County, VA distressed property average for the first six months of 2017 was 6%. Foreclosures made up 4.4% and short sales added 1.6%. Here again, historical comparisons show how far the market has come since the recession. The percentage of distressed properties in 2012 was 39%. In 2012, 14% of mid-year sales were short sales and 25% were foreclosures. A 33% improvement is seen in the increase in home prices from 2012 to 2017. The fewer distressed properties on the market means that home values are stable and selling at true market value.

With low-interest rates and a moderate number of homes on the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market, sellers have the upper hand. That can be fragile because a run up in available properties could reverse that benefit in favor of buyers overnight. It happened in July of 2014. But, for now, sellers are in charge of the local real estate market.

When you’re ready to buy or sell in the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market, give the local real estate pros at Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., a call. Let’s talk and make something great happen.