Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report – 2017

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report – 2017

The Winchester-Frederick County, VA third quarter real estate market for 2017 showed continued growth and stability. The numbers that need to be up are up and the numbers that should be down are down. That’s good news for buyers and sellers.

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report – Up Numbers

For sellers, the average price of a three bedroom 2 bath home has climbed consistently for the past five years. The current average price is $279290. That is a 17% increase from the 2013 average sales price of $233113. For sellers, that’s a welcome change from the difficult days of the recession.

The number of home sales is consistent with the past five years. The number of home sales in the third quarter of 2017 was 452. The average over the past five years is 456. Where the real change in the local real estate market can be seen is when you look back to the recession and follow the recovery as it unfolded.

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report – Where we’ve been.

The recession did not take full effect until 2009. In 2009, third quarter home sales were 378 and Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report - 201751% of those sales were distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales). It took an average of 93 days for a home to get to closing. The average home sale was $199640. Compare that to the same period in 2007 and you see that home values dropped 37%. An average home sale in the third quarter of 2007 was $315968.

Shift forward to 2017 and home values have not recovered to that 2007 point, but they have reached a true market value and not the inflated value of 2007. Current market values are now off 12% from the same period in 2007. That gives you some sense of the how inflated prices had risen in the pre-recession years. The current market values have increased in a steady pattern since 2013.

Winchester-Frederick County, VA Third Quarter Real Estate Market Report – Steady improvements

Third quarter price increases rose 4.5% in 2014, 4.4% in 2015, 5% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017. Third quarter numbers are still being calculated nationwide, but the second quarter numbers give us a glimpse into the nationwide market stability and how it compares to our local market. The second quarter price increases came in at 6.2%. The Winchester-Frederick County third quarter real estate market is right in line with the majority of the nation.

With a steady, and healthy, increase in home values, and a radical drop in distressed properties since the worst days of the recession, it is easy to say the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market is strong a vibrant. There is little concern or worry about bubbles looming on the horizon.

It is a good time to buy, and it is a good time to sell. Interest rates are still at historical lows and homes that are ready to sell, sell quickly and for values near their list price. A 1% – 2% sale discount is common, and discounts exceeding those numbers may show that a property was overpriced for the current market environment at the time of list.

When you’re ready to buy your dream home on the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market, give Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., a call. We are your local sales pros. And, we can do the same when time comes to list your amazing home. Gives us a call, and let’s make something great happen.

 

Winchester/Frederick Co., Housing Market – September 2017

Winchester/Frederick Co., Housing Market – September 2017

The Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market slowed slightly in the third quarter of 2017, but the numbers are still good. The third quarter statistics followed the same pattern as September 2017.

Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market by the numbers

September saw 135 homes sold in the Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market. Of Winchester/Frederick Co., Housing Market - September 2017those 135 homes the average home sale was $279,955. Compared with the past five years, that is a 20% increase in sale price. The September 2013 average home sale price was $221,605.

The average days on the market has stayed consistent during that same five-year period with minimal changes. Three of the past four years experienced 64 days on the market for listings. The summer months typically see a slight decline in real estate sales with an upward movement beginning in early to mid-September. July tends to be a slower month for real estate sales in the Winchester/Frederick Co.

Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market – market health

One of the easiest ways to see if a market is healthy is by the volume of distressed properties for sale on the market (foreclosures and short sales). The distressed market in the local market has become a non-issue.

Winchester/Frederick Co., Housing Market - September 2017September 2017 only had 3% short sales and foreclosures. The third quarter of 2017 followed that down pattern with 4% overall distressed properties. Compared with the previous five years, September 2017 is 10% of the September 2013 distressed market. Those buyers looking for a diamond in the rough are having a much harder time finding distressed bargains.

Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market – slow down whys

It is customary for the local real estate market to slow down in the summer and pick up in the fall. That patter can be seen year over year, but this year is dealing with another issue.

The stock market has a saying that “stocks climb a wall of worry.” When there is turmoil in the world, the stock market tends to expand. It is actually the reverse of what you might think.

The real estate market is the opposite. The real estate market climbs the stairs of certainty. During every presidential election year, real estate takes a wait and see approach to expansion. If the election year is tumultuous, the real estate market may slow down to allow for certainty to evolve. It is likely to be replaced by a more average market once the polls close and the future has some direction based on candidate’s promises.

After inauguration, the market tends to set up a flow that will set the pattern for the year. The 2017 presidential year has been one of continuous uncertainty. Stocks continue to thrive, and real estate is still following a modified wait and see pattern. The third quarters of 2015 and 2016 were more prolific than 2017, but they were also climbing the stairs of certainty. The flow did not change radically, but it did see some adjustments as election day approached.

The current housing market has paused on landing of political wrangling in Washington, D.C. The National Association of Realtors recently revealed that pending home sales have dropped 2.6% nationwide. Uncertainty in Washington, D.C., affects housing on Main St, USA.

The Winchester/Frederick Co., housing market is mimicking the national market flow with the its improvements and cautions. The fourth quarter will tell the tale of 2018. If the next quarter follows the patter of the past five years, the 2018 real estate market will be strong. If Washington, D.C. continues to be a quagmire of dysfunction, investors, sellers and buyers will have to deal with a level of uncertainty while the market tries to expand.

 

Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update – January – July 2017

Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update – January – July 2017

The northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market update for January through July 2017 shows where real estate is moving and where it is booming. It’s moving in all sectors, including, Frederick County, Clarke County and Warren County, VA. Where it’s booming is just across the Virginia state line in Berkeley and Jefferson County, WV.

Frederick County saw 792 homes sold in the first seven months of 2017. That was Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update - January - July 2017followed by 426 in Warren County, and then 123 in Clarke County. Move that view a few miles north and numbers run off the chart. Berkeley County, WV saw 1204 sales during that same period and Jefferson County, WV left all the neighboring counties behind with 1707 homes sold.

The Frederick, Clarke and Warren markets had a total of 1341 homes sold compared to Jefferson County, WV at 1707. That is a 21% difference in that one market as compared to three. Where’s the market booming at the top of the Shenandoah Valley? Jefferson County. WV. That’s good news for our northern neighbors.

Where the numbers are similar in the Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market

Northern Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market Update - January - July 2017The total sales numbers are all over the map in the northern area of the Shenandoah Valley real estate market, but there are numbers that are similar. Through the five counties, distressed property sales range from as low as 6% to as high as 9%. Frederick County, VA and Berkeley and Jefferson Counties in WV all show a 6% distressed property rate for the previous seven months. Warren County, VA was at 8% and Clarke County, VA was 9%. The 6% number is closer to pre-recession numbers, but overall, even 9% is a good number compared to five years ago.

The days on the market are also similar across the five counties. Clarke County, VA and Warren County, VA both show an average of 91 days on the market, while Frederick County, VA shows a low of 63. Berkeley and Jefferson County, WV had 77 and 76 respectively. There is a 30% difference from the high to low days on the market, but that number is influenced by many factors that may not signal problem issues.

The biggest difference in the Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Market

The biggest difference in the Shenandoah Valley real estate market is in the average sales price. The lowest sales price is Warren County, VA. Warren County had an average sales price of $154,416 for a 3 bedroom 2 bath home. Close behind that number was Berkeley County, WV. Berkeley County home sales averaged $188,279 for the first seven months of 2017.

Clarke County, VA had the highest average home sale price at $380,365, followed by Frederick County, VA at $269,030 and Jefferson County, WV at $210,935. The Clarke County, VA real estate market is a unique market. It is a lot like an island in the midst of the five counties. What is a normal market in the other four counties rarely applies to Clarke County, VA.

In the five counties, the numbers are moving in the right direction. Jefferson and Berkeley Counties may be getting a boost from new industry moving into the area. Proctor and Gamble is establishing a new facility on 450 acres just south of Martinsburg, WV in Berkeley County. The facility will be one-million square feet under roof and will employee 700 workers.

Amazon is also establishing a new fulfillment center at the most northern tip of Virginia in Frederick County. The new facility will hire 1,000 full-time workers. The facility will also be one-million square feet under roof. The site is just minutes south of the West Virginia border. That may also be contributing to the increase in home sales in both Berkeley and Jefferson Counties.

The northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market is looking good as we head into the second half of 2017. Home sales are up, distressed property sales are down and home values are returning to pre-recession values. It is a good time to sell. When you’re ready to buy or sell in the northern Shenandoah Valley real estate market, give Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., a call. Cornerstone serves both Virginia and West Virginia and we are here to help you find that great home. We are your local real estate sales pros.

 

 

Don’t panic; it’s July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Report

Don’t panic; it’s July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Report

Don’t panic; it’s July. The Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market for July 2017 shows a considerable drop in sales from June 2017. Real estate sales dropped 24%. That might sound worrisome to some, but in reality, it’s a seasonal decline that happens year after year.

July of 2016 dropped 9% from June 2016. July of 2015 dropped 23% from June 2015, Don't panic; it's July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market Reportand July 2014 dropped 37% from June 2014. What causes these mid-year anomalies? Vacations and summer. Home buyers are less likely to buy a home in July than most other months. Buyers are on vacation, kids are out of school, and college students are doing what college students do during the summer. You get the point. People are busy and distracted.

Add to those simple things a run up in inventory like the June to July 2014 market and you can see how the numbers shift away from robust sales to the appearance of dismal sales. The reality is, the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market takes a breather for a month, and it begins to pick up again in August as students go back to school and vacations come to an end.

Don’t panic; it’s July and the numbers are good.

The Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market is very healthy at the mid-summer point of 2017. The real value in the current market is seen in where it has been and where it is today. So, don’t panic; it’s July.

The average sales price of homes sold in the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market have made a steady climb since 2013. There has been a 19% increase in value over those five market years. An average 3 bedroom 2.5 bath home sold for $236,312 in 2013. Today, that same home sells for $289,999.

The days on the market has also declined over the same period. That number hasn’t seen the same level of improvement as the sales values, but it’s still heading in the right direction. A 2013 sale took an average of 56 days, and a 2017 sale averages 47 days. That’s not a huge difference, but it is a 16% improvement. Again, that’s a positive change.

Don't panic, its July. Winchester-Frederick County, VA Real Estate Market ReportThe most stunning change over the past five markets is the distressed property sales. This number continues to improve month over month and year over year. The current short sales and foreclosures only account for 1.5% of total sales in July. In 2013, that number was 21% of total sales. That shift alone should give buyers a much greater level of confidence that the value of the property they’re buying is the actual value of the property.

Don’t panic; it’s July and inventory is good.

Sellers are still in a better position in the local market because of the lower inventory, but inventory is climbing. Currently, the inventory stands at 592 available homes with 249 pending sales. The local market is strongest at 500-600 available homes with 550 being the sweet spot. If the inventory increases much beyond 600, the advantage may swing toward buyers, and sales may slow down. Higher inventory equates to more opportunities and that can give buyers the freedom to look at more homes before making a decision.

No matter what data you look at, the Winchester-Frederick County, VA real estate market is strong, healthy and on course for another great year. So, when I say don’t panic; it’s July, you can take that to the bank. When you’re ready to buy or sell a home in Winchester-Frederick County, VA, give your Cornerstone Business Group, Inc., agent a call. We are your local real estate sales pros.